Bitcoin SegWit2X 扩容分叉计划取消前后的想法

Summary: In this article, I summarize my thoughts on SegWit2X before and after the withdrawn plan. The proposed hard fork blockchain is not sustainable from the interest of miners and will probably die if it really happens. Upgrading Bitcoin may be inevitable in the future, but the community will learn from this lesson and should not rush without reaching a good consensus.


比特币

我本来打算写一篇文章,分析一下预计11月中即将发生的比特币分叉事件:SegWit2X。草稿都打好了,却惊喜地得知突发消息:相关利益方取消SegWit2X计划了!币圈一天,人间一年。

The Segwit2x effort began in May with a simple purpose: to increase the blocksize and improve Bitcoin scalability. At the time, the Bitcoin community was in crisis after nearly 3 years of heavy debate, and consensus for Segwit seemed like a distant mirage with only 30% support among miners. Segwit2x found its first success in August, as it broke the deadlock and quickly led to Segwit’s successful activation. Since that time, the team shifted its efforts to phase two of the project – a 2MB blocksize increase.

Our goal has always been a smooth upgrade for Bitcoin. Although we strongly believe in the need for a larger blocksize, there is something we believe is even more important: keeping the community together. Unfortunately, it is clear that we have not built sufficient consensus for a clean blocksize upgrade at this time. Continuing on the current path could divide the community and be a setback to Bitcoin’s growth. This was never the goal of Segwit2x.

As fees rise on the blockchain, we believe it will eventually become obvious that on-chain capacity increases are necessary. When that happens, we hope the community will come together and find a solution, possibly with a blocksize increase. Until then, we are suspending our plans for the upcoming 2MB upgrade.

We want to thank everyone that contributed constructively to Segwit2x, whether you were in favor or against. Your efforts are what makes Bitcoin great. Bitcoin remains the greatest form of money mankind has ever seen, and we remain dedicated to protecting and fostering its growth worldwide.

Mike Belshe, Wences Casares, Jihan Wu, Jeff Garzik, Peter Smith and Erik Voorhees

但这利好消息不妨我将之前的观点分享给大家。

SegWit2X代表谁与谁之间的分歧?

之前的信息显示,SegWit2X主要有算力意向支持,达到84%的比例。SegWit2X将比特币区块链目前的1M容易扩容至2M,可以降低交易手续费和加快交易处理速度,一方面促进比特币成为交易货币——满足支付企业的利益,同时扩容促进中心化,增大矿工话语权,权力和利益的魅力不容小觑。

然而,现在的比特币用户暂时并不关心比特币是否适用于交易——比特币的价格还不够稳定,并不是很关心比特币作为支付媒介,当下的比特币日益成为一个价值储藏和升值手段,就是数字版的黄金,甚至比实物黄金更能升值(Google搜索“购买比特币”已经超过“购买黄金”)。

那本质上谁说了算?矿工吗?Bitcoin Core开发者吗?我觉得都不是,而是市场上的用户说了算。用户心里的比特币价格决定矿工的利润。

整个币圈的人有绝大部分用户认可不扩容的比特币,也就是Bitcoin Core链。Twitter上有投票显示84%的投票者认为Core链会在分叉后占主导地位,Core版本才是真正的BTC。当达不成共识时,Hard fork is hard fork. BTC的品牌在人们心中的信用积累,不是简单改变技术上的细节能实现的。名不正则言不顺。

SegWit2X在经济利益上的可持续吗?

SegWit2X的期货币价只有1500美元,但挖矿难度和比特币Core原链一样,这意味着SegWit2X挖矿利润也变为四分之一(比特币现金Bitcoin Cash BCC目前挖矿难度大约是比特币的7%,刚好币价也是比特币的8%左右)。一旦分叉,将有挖矿算力转移到Core链,SegWit2X接着失去算力支持,进一步导致币价下跌。SegWit2X不像BCC,它没有难度紧急调度,于是SegWit2X进入恶性循环,甚至导致死去。

我一直认为,矿工没有信仰,只信仰利益——这当然是一个绝对正确的动机,如果SegWit2X挖矿利润不行,则在经济学上不可持续。

SegWit2X并没有本质上的太多改变,将目前1M的区块链大小提到2M,但却无疑导致比特币进一步中心化。虽然SegWit侧链有可能降低安全性,但在此基础上进一步的闪电网络甚至跨链交易,都可以实现SegWit2X希望的改善小额交易费用和提高交易处理速度。

即使考虑区块链的容量,BCC已经是一个选择,SegWit2X还不如BCC。搞笑的事情:BCC曾经的死对手-Bitcoin Core,在SegWit2X面前,与BCC在一条船上。正所谓敌人的敌人就是朋友。

SegWit2X造成双输还是双赢?

另外让用户们觉得恶意的事情,SegWit2X和Bitcoin Core都没有提供重放保护(Replay Protection),因为两者都觉得自己是正统Bitcoin,都不愿意提供重放保护——不像BCC明确提出重放保护,缺乏重放保护很可能会造成用户不必要的损失,对用户来说是很不利的事情(虽然问题很可能会得到解决,比如ETH和ETC的问题就是由ETH提供重放保护得已解决),这样一样,在原来的Bitcoin Core面前,SegWit2X就成了一个恶意攻击者,失去一部分民意支持。

很幸运地看到,在最终利益面前,矿池代表们能主动让一步,暂时撤消SegWit2X扩容计划,实现双赢的结果。在社区没有达到一致共识前提下升级,会造成比特币社区和信用可能分裂,可能造成双输的后果。

难得的共识试验尝试

站在这个时间点上来说,未来还可能会再有升级扩容的争议,我相信人们会吸取这一次的经验和教训,至少不会那么仓促。在比特币这个理论上没有中心机构的世界里,人们还是选择达成共识——这也是一次最大的社会试验,因为这符合大家共同的利益。人类趋利避害的天性没有错,它能使人类向前发展。

Image via pixabay.com

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